What does the plan cover?

The “Victory Plan” consists of five points, accompanied by three non-public annexes, presented only to selected partners. The first three points are politico-military in nature and envisage Ukraine’s immediate invitation to join NATO, although actual accession would take place in the future, the expansion and strengthening of Ukraine’s defence capabilities, including the removal of restrictions on the use of Western long-range weapons for attacks deep inside Russia, and the deployment on Ukrainian territory of a “non-nuclear deterrence package” that would constitute security guarantees, though no details were publicly given as to what it would be in practice. Ukraine further proposes to its partners the joint protection and exploitation of critical raw materials and, after the war, the replacement of part of the U.S. contingent in Europe with its troops. The last two points are a departure from arguments of a strictly military nature and are intended to show the public, above all, in the United States, the benefits of supporting Ukraine, which after the war could become a provider of security in Europe.

Under what circumstances was the plan presented?

The plight of the Ukrainian military on the long front where Russia, not Ukraine, maintains the initiative, problems with arms supplies and mobilisation, increasing Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, and public fatigue with war are translating into increasingly intensive efforts by the Ukrainian authorities to obtain more military support from its allies. Crucial for Ukraine is the authorisation of the use of Western long-range missiles for attacks deep inside Russian territory. At the same time, Ukraine is receiving increasing signals from some partners (including the U.S. and Germany) about the need to start peace talks with Russia. Domestic problems in the countries that have helped Ukraine the most so far (such as uncertainty about U.S. policy towards Russia after the upcoming elections or potential tensions related to the 2025 parliamentary elections in Germany) are translating into reduced interest of Western public opinion in the topic of the war in Ukraine. The need for a concrete strategy leading to victory was also mentioned in April this year as a condition for U.S. aid.

What are the initial reactions to the plan by Ukraine’s partners?

So far, the plan has provoked mixed reactions, dampening Ukrainian expectations. Statements by both NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and U.S. Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith indicate that there is no agreement to officially extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the Alliance, even if its accession would only take place after the war. Instead, allied consultations are underway on allowing Ukraine to attack military targets deep inside Russia. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stressed that Germany is still not changing its mind on the transfer of long-range Taurus systems to Ukraine, while the UK is in favour of lifting the restrictions. While the plan itself did not meet with an enthusiastic reception nor did Ukraine achieve the expected results (e.g., U.S. permission to attack targets deep inside Russia), the series of foreign visits by Zelensky and related discussions with allies about the “Victory Plan” resulted in further announcements of continued assistance to Ukraine. 

What are the prospects for further assistance to Ukraine?

Although partner states announced further support for Ukraine, there is a lack of political will to increase military aid enough for Ukraine to achieve a clear military victory over Russia, that is, for it to regain the strategic initiative, prevent Russia from further offensive actions and, for example, permanently threaten military infrastructure on Russian territory or occupied Crimea. Regardless of the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, an increase in U.S. aid to Ukraine is unlikely, which may also entail a decline in support from European countries. At the same time, there are unofficial suggestions from some governments, including Germany’s, about potential negotiations. Chancellor Scholz in September stressed the need to redouble diplomatic efforts to end the war. In this context, the “Victory Plan” can be understood as the beginning of Ukraine’s preparations for a political process to stop the hostilities. In doing so, Ukraine seeks to gain as much military and political support from the West (e.g., the invitation to join NATO), while at the same time defining a model of post-war relations with the West that is attractive enough to maximise its position ahead of possible talks with Russia.