What is COP24 and why is it important?
The climate agreement negotiated in Paris in 2015 was unprecedented in terms of the number of countries that pledged to combat climate change. At the same time, the adopted provisions were very general. The summit in Katowice is salient because in 2020, the agreement will be operational and the next climate summit will take place in November 2019. Thus, any delay in Katowice will make it impossible to prepare the parties to implement the provisions of the PA. Hence, the stakes of COP24 in Katowice include the need to adopt a package of rules implementing the agreement (the “Katowice rulebook”), including, for example, the content of national obligations, the manner of monitoring and reporting their performance, and the functioning of financial instruments.
What are the main negotiation challenges?
The biggest challenge is to adjust the level of the requirements to the capacity of a given country, for example, in regard to monitoring or reporting actions undertaken. In general, developed countries strive to adopt universal rules while developing countries want the rules to be separated into more restrictive ones, binding on developed countries and less detailed for themselves. This division of the parties, especially if the group of developing countries includes such countries as China or Singapore, is difficult for the developed countries to accept.
The issue of financial assistance provided by the latter group, although not a subject directly covered by the rulebook negotiations, will be crucial for the success of the talks along with the consent of developing countries to additional regulations.
What will drive the negotiations?
In Katowice, unlike the two previous summits in Marrakesh and Bonn, the negotiators must come to agreement. This is very encouraging for the delegates—although during COP24, it should be expected that some countries may try to set conditions, block the talks, etc.—so ultimately the will to make a decision will be conclusive. Practically all parties may benefit from adoption of the rulebook and only a few may lose. Poland seeks success, both as host of the summit and in its presidency, the EU needs it as a leader in climate action. The U.S., however, has nothing to lose since it is intending to withdraw from the PA. The least developed countries (LDCs) and small island states need financial resources related to global climate policy, and China and India are the leaders of the developing countries and cannot distinguish their own interests too much. These circumstances will help forge a compromise.
What Poland’s position on COP24 issues?
Poland, operating as the COP24 presidency, is, first and foremost, interested in a positive conclusion to the negotiations, a smooth-running summit, and presenting itself as a country whose energy transition is ongoing (which is why Katowice, with its transition to a post-coal mining city, was selected as the summit host). Among Poland’s priorities will be promoting an evolutionary (what it terms a “socially just”) approach to energy transition, electromobility, and the role of forests as carbon sinks.
A party to the UNFCCC, Poland, though, works through the EU, which acts on its behalf. The common position of the Member States is determined at daily working meetings during the conference. The Polish government, like the EU, supports clear global principles that will allow a level-playing field for the EU’s climate ambitions and those of other countries in the world.
