Editors: Sławomir Dębski (PISM Director), Bartosz Wiśniewski (Head of Research Office), Rafał Tarnogórski (Managing Editor), Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka, Anna Maria Dyner, Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk, Sebastian Płóciennik, Patrycja Sasnal, Justyna Szczudlik, Marcin Terlikowski, Tomasz Żornaczuk
A special meeting of NATO heads of state and government on 25 May was the first opportunity for discussion as a group with new U.S. President Donald Trump. The meeting did not dispel concerns about the U.S. commitment to Europe but confirmed the new administration’s priority is to push the European Allies into sharing more of the financial burden.
On 22-23 May, U.S. President Donald Trump will visit Israel. His visit is meant to portray his administration as more willing to consider Israel's strategic interests than did President Barack Obama's.
Presidential elections in Iran will be held on 19 May. The strongest candidates are Hassan Rouhani, Iran’s current president, and Ebrahim Raisi, who is said to be a favourite of Iran’s Supreme Leader, the Ayatollah Khamenei.
The North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) election saw CDU win with 33% support, ahead of the now-ruling SPD, which took 31.5% of the vote. The third force in the local parliament will be the liberals from FDP, who received 12.5%. Because of the importance of this state, the outcome sets the stage for the Bundestag elections in September.
The “Belt and Road” forum will take place on 14–15 May in Beijing. Twenty-nine world leaders will attend, including Poland Prime Minister Beata Szydło. China has focused enormous attention on this event.
South Korea’s centre-left candidate from the Democratic Party, Moon Jae-in, won the presidential elections on 9 May, ending a political crisis that had lasted several months and culminated in the impeachment of President Park Geun-hye. Moon proposes greater openness to North Korea, firmness in relations with the U.S., and better ties with China.
Emmanuel Macron won the race for the French presidency on Sunday, collecting
66.06% of the popular vote. Macron’s rival, the leader of the far-right National
Front (FN), Marine Le Pen, picked up 33.94% of the vote. The turnout exceeded 74%.
Emmanuel Macron won the first round of the French presidential election, gaining 23.86% of the vote. In the second round, he will face Marine Le Pen, the leader of the National Front party (21.43%). With a surprisingly high electoral turnout (76.2%), conservative candidate François Fillon took 19.9% of vote, and far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon got 19.6%. Only the top two go through to the second round.
On 19 April, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) delivered its first Order in a case submitted by Ukraine concerning the application of the International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism and of the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination.
On 16 April, Turks in favour of a constitutional change to a strong-president system carried 51.4% of the announced vote. The opposition is demanding the annulment of the referendum result, claiming it was rigged.
According to the latest polls, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the far-left candidate of the party Unsubmissive France (La France insoumise), has a chance of reaching the second round of the elections, where he would face either far-right candidate Marine Le Pen or more centrist Emmanuel Macron. Mélenchon recorded the largest increase in support in the period, from 12% to 18% in one month.
On 7 April, the United States attacked the Syrian air base in Al-Shayrat. Fifty-nine Tomahawk cruise missiles targeted military installations presumably used in the chemical attack on Khan Shaykhoun on 4 April.