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Home > Publications > PISM Bulletin > Make or Break: Scenarios for the Future of Iraq

Make or Break: Scenarios for the Future of Iraq

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24 June 2014
Patrycja Sasnal
no. 89 (684)

For the past two years, religious extremists of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) have expanded their network in Syria and Iraq. They have recently taken control of several Iraqi cities. In the near future, the disintegration of Iraq into three parts is much less likely than the full secession of Iraqi Kurdistan from Iraq. In the short term, neither the U.S. nor Iran will overtly intervene militarily in the country, although they will both train and advise central government forces and cooperate temporarily. Even though a common enemy has united the interests of many rivals, a transformation of current alliances should not be expected.


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