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ANALYSIS 2013-05-20 |
PISM Policy Papers
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2012-12-13
The next issue of PISM Policy Papers by Agata Gostyńska and Nicolai von Ondarza The necessity of strengthening eurozone economic governance is undisputed. Given the existence of so called pre-ins (which are committed to joining the common currency), however, this cannot occur only at the level of the eurozone’s 17 members and over the head of the EU institutions. A genuine Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) must be reconciled with the vital interests of all EU Member States, in particular the “pre-ins”. This difficult situation creates an opportunity for the emerging German–Polish relationship as a key to maintaining the EU’s integrity in a more-differentiated Union. 2012-12-11
The next issue of PISM Policy Papers by Wojciech Lorenz The aerospace and defence industries are on the brink of a major shake-up. The aircraft producers will ave to meet booming demand for civilian planes, while defence companies face slashed military budgets and different military priorities. Both sectors of the industry will need a serious restructuring to adapt to the changing market, with consolidations and take-overs constituting a major trend. Their consequences will be felt in Central and Eastern Europe, with Poland, as the biggest defence market in the region, at the forefront. 2012-11-20
The next issue of PISM Policy Papers, by Kinga Brudzińska and Bartłomiej Znojek, prepared in cooperation with the Centre for International Relations, School of Social Sciences and History (CPDOC) in Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV). The paper has been prepared in cooperation with the Centre for International Relations, School of Social Sciences and History (CPDOC) in Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV). 2012-11-13
The next issue of PISM Policy Papers by Wojciech Lorenz NATO is preparing new defence plans with the potential of having available the scarcest military resources ever. Although the Alliance is attempting to create leaner, better equipped deployable forces, it is losing capabilities crucial for both projecting power and territorial defence. Since NATO is determined to adapt to new threats, planning teams may be forced to further de-emphasise assets needed for the credibility of Article 5. 2012-11-12
European Policy Brief: Macroeconomic Conditionality in Cohesion Policy: Added Value or Unnecessary Burden? We are pleased to announce the release of the PISM/Egmont Policy Brief on macroeconomic conditionality in cohesion policy: Macroeconomic Conditionality in Cohesion Policy: Added Value or Unnecessary Burden? by Paweł Tokarski & Stijn Verhelst 2012-11-12
The next issue of PISM Policy Papers by Anita Sobjak and Konrad Zasztowt The aim of the Nabucco West gas pipeline is to supply Eastern and Central Europe with gas from sources other than Russia. Initially, the most likely source for Nabucco West would be Azerbaijani gas from Shah Deniz Phase 2, which would be delivered through the Turkish-Azerbaijani Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP). The 8 October meeting in Vienna of energy ministers from countries in the Nabucco West consortium and their counterpart from Azerbaijan suggests that the project is realistic. Nevertheless, the TANAP company has yet to choose whether to connect with this pipeline or the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline, which would supply the Italian market. A decision is due in 2013. This paper examines the impact that TANAP and Nabucco West could have, if implemented, on the energy security of Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Austria. 2012-11-07
The next issue of PISM Policy Papers by Justyna Szczudlik-Tatar The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is about to enter the final phase of the transition of power to the new leadership. The process, inaugurated in the Spring of 2011, has been neither transparent, nor smooth and free from sometimes dramatic intra-party struggles. Even though it has been subject to intense scrutiny, its ultimate outcome remains an enigma. The author of the analysis takes stock of the procedural aspects of the periodic change of guard within the CCP’s core of power and influence, and confronts them with the known and alleged factional strives in an attempt to offer an early forecast of the prospects for China’s internal political development and its foreign policy in the coming decade. The fifth generation of Chinese leaders will preside over a tumultuous period in China’s interactions with the international community—one in which likely see the solidification of the country’s status as a great power. 2012-11-05
The next issue of PISM Policy Papers by Bartosz Wiśniewski Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are locked in a tight race for the White House. If Obama were to emerge triumphant, what would that mean for America’s foreign policy? During the second term, Obama could try to capitalise on the remaining credibility among the foreign audiences, and attempt to pursue an activist, risk-averse strategy internationally. In practice, however, Obama is likely to face serious obstacles to mobilise the international community to support his agenda. Domestic circumstances—the need to focus on averting a short-term fiscal meltdown, and to address long-term challenges to United States’ economic standing and global competitiveness—would also consume a considerable amount of the president’s attention and political capital. An upcoming reshuffling within Obama’s national security team could add momentum to United States’ diplomatic activities, but it will be largely up to the president to decide whether he will seek to secure his legacy in the foreign policy domain. 2012-10-31
The next issue of PISM Policy Papers by Justyna Szczudlik-Tatar Since China and the U.S. try to present a tougher stance towards each other, both countries seem to have found themselves on the collision course. China’s growing economic influence, military strength and rising assertiveness in the region has paved the way for deeper U.S. involvement in Asia–Pacific. Although official Chinese response is muted, U.S. policy is seen by the PRC as a threat to its position as a great regional power and a future global superpower. Justyna Szczudlik-Tatar explains in this paper how the countries that are “neither friends nor foes” pursue their goals and what could be the outcome of the tensions between them. 2012-10-25
The next issue of PISM Policy Papers by Igor Lyubashenko This weekend’s parliamentary elections in Ukraine will be watched closely in Europe and beyond as the voting is an important step in the preparation for the battle for presidency – currently a major power centre in the country. It can also have significant influence on Ukraine’s relations with the West. The biggest country in Eastern Europe with 46-million people population remains on the crossroads between democracy and the state run by the groups of interests. If the elections are accepted as free and fair by the international community, the EU will have to look for a constructive way to cooperate with Ukrainian authorities – writes Igor Lyubashenko. 2012-10-09
The next issue of PISM Policy Papers by Dariusz Kałan, Paweł Tokarski and Patryk Toporowski The next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) of the EU is taking shape amidst uncertainty about the future of the Eurozone. The crisis of the common European currency overshadows the bargaining over the MFF, and impacts the calculations of the countries constituting the Visegrad Group—the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia—or the V4, during the negotiations. Each member of the V4 has a deeply embedded interest in upholding the prominence and extent of EU’s cohesion policy in the years to come. In the light of the attempts to put a cap on this budget figure, a natural convergence of interests and positions would seem natural. Still, as authors of the analysis point out, the economic outlook of particular V4 countries, their political and economic partners of choice on the European level, as well as their respective visions of the future of European integration, are bearing heavily on their actual policies during the MFF negotiations. The V4 as a whole stands to gain only if individual members will be able to navigate the existing or emerging differences. If these differences prevail, and one of the countries breaks rank in search of a better negotiating position, the V4 is likely to arrive at suboptimal results at best. 2012-10-05
The next issue of PISM Policy Papers by Kinga Brudzińska (published only in Polish) The author discusses the benefits associated with the activities of politically-affiliated foundations as instruments of democracy promotion. Such foundations, despite their non-governmental status, often depend on direct financial support from their political counterparts, or benefit from budgetary resources of the home country. Political foundations focus on technical and organisational support for emerging political parties in third countries, aid during electoral campaigns, or training in political marketing and public communication for individual activists. Political foundations tend to actively scrutinise the policies of the host state if they deem them dangerous or otherwise unwanted, thus leading to friction and tensions on the official level. Political foundations need to walk a fine line between their daily, statutory activities and the need to avoid being seen as influencing the domestic politics of the host state. The analysis concludes with a list of pros and cons of creating political foundations in Poland, and an attempt to identify the ways in which they could benefit the Polish democratisation agenda. 2012-09-28
The next issue of PISM Policy Papers by Kinga Dudzińska Energy security is a priority for Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia—three former Soviet republics that are still dependent on supplies from Russia. Although the three countries are often regarded as relatively homogeneous, their energy policy indicates visible differences and their priorities do not necessarily go together. At the same time, such small states with limited potential for large and expensive projects seem to be doomed to cooperate, especially that investments in infrastructure at the regional level are required. The author of this Policy Paper explains the differences in the energy policies of the Baltic States and elaborates on chances for coordinated efforts towards greater energy security. PISM Policy Paper no. 37 2012-09-21
The next issue of PISM Policy Papers by Anna Maria Dyner The campaign ahead of the elections to the Belarusian parliament, which are scheduled for September 23, shows the specific nature of its political system. The main factors that distinguish Belarus from democratic countries are the marginal importance of the parliament, concentration of power in the institution of the president, the almost invisible role of the opposition and a defective system of counting votes (such as early voting), which encourages fraud and manipulation of the results. At the same time, the authorities do everything possible to maintain the status quo in the country. Not only does that mean that no single oppositional candidate has a chance to get a mandate in parliament but also that Belarusian authorities will try to avoid implementing necessary reforms, such as liberalisation of the political system or privatisation of state-owned enterprises, because they are afraid of losing power. PISM Policy Paper no. 36 2012-09-14
The next issue of PISM Policy Papers by Konrad Zasztowt The Middle Eastern map of political alliances, affiliations and animosities is being constantly redrawn, but certain elements endure. The revolutionary turmoil in the region, now on full display in Syria, together with mounting tensions over issues such as Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability, are the most pertinent issues that are bringing to the fore the deep, structural differences inherent in the Turkish-Iranian-Azerbaijani triangle. After what seemed as a period of growing Turkish-Iranian affinity in the past decade, the relations between Ankara and Tehran are on a downward trajectory. Turkey found it impossible to continue with the policy of „zero problems with neighbours” in the light of the events in Syria—it sided with the Sunni opposition, thus antagonizing not only the regime in Damascus, but also its most valued ally, Iran. In addition, Turkey seems to have re-calibrated its position on Iran’s nuclear ambitions, using it to signal the lack of support for Tehrans anti-Western policies. In case of Azerbaijan, religious affinity with Iran seems to count less than the underlying geopolitical choices. On top of that, a secular Azerbaijan finds itself in a sharp ideological conflict with a teocratic Iran, and is deeply concerned with Iran’s anti-Israeli rhetorics and actions. Whether a regional crisis will unfold is largely dependent on the ability of all three countries to forestall the escalation of the existing problems into much graver feuds. PISM Policy Paper no. 35 2012-09-12
The authors of the Policy Brief on the engagement of the Visegrad countries in the Balkans are four analysts: Tomasz Żornaczuk, Milan Nič, Jan Vlkovský and István Gyarmati. In the introduction the authors briefly explain why Europe should pay more attention to the south-eastern part of the continent. Then they present the policy of the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary in the Western Balkans, and show that although help from these states is significant, there is a need for greater coordination of the Visegrad Group countries in the region. In the main part of the text, the authors propose a number of recommendations for actions that should be taken by the Visegrad countries in the Balkans in order to boost Euro-Atlantic integration processes in the region. The Policy Brief was created in co-operation of the Polish Institute of International Affairs, Central European Policy Institute – run by the Slovak Atlantic Commission (Slovakia), the Center for Democracy Public Foundation (Hungary) and Jagello 2000 Association (Czech Republic). The publication is part of the co-operation of above mentioned think-tanks in the framework of the project "Visegrad Policy Briefs: Converging Regional Positions." 2012-09-06
The next issue of PISM Policy Papers by Elżbieta Kaca and Krzysztof Soloch. The uncertainty that is currently surrounding the EU’s political and economic future calls for new, innovative approaches to how European politics is handled. Perhaps crucially, the ongoing crisis has exposed divergences between the two most influential EU member states—France and Germany—thus creating a window of opportunity for cooperation in alignments that are either new, or which previously have not been tested in a meaningful way. The authors suggest than one of the possible avenues of cooperation would be an enhanced Franco-Polish partnership—a mutually beneficial arrangement that could provide much-needed leadership in select EU policy areas and contribute to strengthening the European project on the whole. While not necessarily a universal winning formula for the crisis-stricken EU, a closer, more focused Franco-Polish cooperation on the Common Foreign and Security Policy, the next Multiannual Financial Framework, or the future of European integration in general could serve as a testing ground for a more inclusive intergovernmental approach to EU policymaking. 2012-07-06
The next issue of PISM Policy Papers by Kacper Rękawek Security of civil nuclear programmes is not exactly front page news in Central Europe, nonetheless it deserves to be closely followed in the light of intentions to expand the use of nuclear power in the case of the Czech Republic and Hungary, or its introduction as part of the energy mix in Poland. The author diagnoses a considerable degree of assuredness about the level of nuclear security among Central Europeans, and assigns it to a relatively small size of their nuclear programmes, as well as their purely civil orientation. Security arrangements are considered to be adequate in the light of potential breaches of nuclear security either via instances of non-violent, anti-nuclear environmental activism, or the possibility of a deliberate terrorist strike. PISM Policy Paper no. 33 2012-06-27
The next issue of PISM Policy Papers by Anita Sobjak
The paper highlights the importance of Hungary’s policy towards the Hungarian diaspora in the countries of Central and South-Eastern Europe. The author points to both discontinuities and similarities in the approach of post-Cold War Hungarian governments and political elites to the issue of so-called national policy, as well as its interplay with other strategic directions of Hungary’s foreign policy in this period, most notably Euro-Atlantic integration and good-neighbourly relations. The analysis focuses on the national policy as implemented by the current Hungarian government of the FIDESZ political party. The policy itself is rooted in the Hungarian legislation, and is reflected in the structures of the Hungarian administration. As such, its implementation has not been without considerable negative repercussions for Hungary’s relations with its neighbours but, as the author points out, in some cases the relationship remained amicable, or at least cooperative. 2012-06-21
The next issue of PISM Policy Papers by Anna Visvizi 2012-05-31
The next issue of PISM Policy Papers by Lidia Puka
The paper offers a useful overview of the factors affecting inter- and sub-national cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region (BSR). The author points to a notable absence of so-called hard security, low-consensual issues on the regional agenda, while at the same time diagnosing a long list of reasons behind limited efficacy of cooperation in tackling soft challenges. Diversity in terms of demographic and economic potential among the regional partners, varying level of socio-economic development, and different priorities assigned to the BSR make for a complex and demanding setting for policymakers. All of the key challenges facing the region—boosting trade, bridging civilisational gaps, ensuring greater coordination of environmental policies, and enhancing the interconnectivity in terms of transportation network—can be met, but will require greater political engagement, adjustment of national priorities and instruments of cooperation, as well as adequate sourcing. The paper concludes with an analysis of Poland’s possible input into a more advantageous cooperation in the BSR. 2012-05-22
The special issue of PISM Policy Papers by Richard Youngs and Kinga Oliwia Brudzińska. Delays in setting up the European Endowment for Democracy (EED) cast further question-marks over Europe’s scale of ambition in democracy support. The authors argue that in order to add value, the EED must fill a clear niche by providing quick and political support at crucial tipping-points for democratic reform. The EED must be endowed with a significant amount of new funding to send a signal of serious intent. PISM Policy Paper Special Issue PISM-FRIDE 2012-05-15
The next issue of PISM Policy Papers by Jacek Durkalec
The paper offers a comprehensive overview of the positions of Central and Eastern European states vis-à-vis the NATO Defence and Deterrence Posture Review (DDPR). The outcome of the DDPR process, which has been on the Alliance’s agenda since the summit in Lisbon in 2010, will come to the front and centre of the debate in the second half of May, as leaders of NATO member states convene for the summit in Chicago. The author discusses the Central and Eastern Europeans’ approach to the question of the overall mix of NATO defence and deterrence capabilities—nuclear forces, conventional forces, and missile defence. In particular, he argues that the debate about certain aspects of the NATO defence and deterrence posture should not cease with the endorsement of the DDPR report in Chicago, but should continue in order to address the outstanding issue of non-strategic nuclear weapons based in Europe. PISM Policy Paper no. 29 2012-04-20
Ukraine’s membership in the Energy Community has recently come under intense scrutiny because of apparent disconnect between the expectations of the Ukrainian authorities on the one side, and of the organisation’s representatives on the other. The paper points to the possible reasons for this disturbing divergence, highlighting in particular the difficulties in reforming the Ukrainian energy sector. Some of the delays in meeting the legal obligations resulting from the membership in the Community can be attributed to the ongoing negotiations with Russia over the prices of imported natural gas. Although Ukraine’s long-term, strategic interests in the area of natural gas transit and electricity production could help bridge the differences with the Energy Community, there is no room for complacency on either side. The author argues that progress towards Ukraine’s further integration with the EU in the energy field is not a foregone conclusion, and a rethinking of both the pace and the instruments of cooperation is urgently needed. 2012-04-13
The next issue of PISM Policy Papers Policy by Andrzej Turkowski. The paper presents the determinants, goals and instruments of the Russian international climate policy. The author points to the pragmatism that characterizes the Russian approach to the climate change issue, and highlights the key drivers behind Russia’s stance during the recently-launched post-Durban negotiations. PISM Policy Paper no. 27 2012-03-15
The times are hardly auspicious for making tough decisions about the future of the European Union’s finances. European integration is under stress in the light of the potentially debilitating debt crisis which threatens the long-term viability of the eurozone. In addition, the negotiations over the EU’s Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF)—an arduous, seemingly routine process, with scant possibilities for bold moves and widespread awareness about the limits of the eventual compromise, yet extremely prone to politicization—have become even more protracted as new actors, most notably the European Parliament, seek to gain additional prominence. Still, the process will be largely driven by the biggest net contributors to the EU budget, namely Germany, France and the United Kingdom. Transparency could thus be a decisive feature of the negotiating process, allowing less influential Member States to hedge against the proposals undermining the solidarity which underpins the EU budget. Still, as the authors conclude, the outlook is rather pessimistic for the EU, as the stalemate hampers a more effective application of the MFF to tackle economic challenges. 2012-02-10
The next issue of PISM Policy Papers by Patryk Kugiel On February 10, leaders of the European Union and India met to take stock of the state of their strategic partnership. The agenda of the 12th EU-India Summit featured, among others, a discussion about the past year’s developments in Northern Africa and the possibilities of assisting the ongoing changes in the region. As the author points out, engaging India in this context will require a better understanding of the Indian approach to democracy support, and a frank dialogue about the differences between the EU and India in this particular area. He then goes on to explain the reasons for these divergences, and indentifies possible avenues of cooperation. The paper argues that different approaches to democracy ought to be considered as complimenting, and not necessarily contradicting each other. The EU and India can work together on some very specific issues, even if the differences turn out to be impossible to bridge. 2012-01-05
The next issue of PISM Policy Papers by Bartłomiej Znojek Following the creation of the EU-Brazil strategic partnership nearly five years ago, the density of contacts between the European Union and the largest Latin American country has grown steadily. However, while it looks impressive on paper given the potential of both sides, and seems like a no-brainer in the light of EU’s global ambitions and Brazil’s economic and political rise, including its status as a part of the BRICS forum, the relationship is not free from significant tensions. It is not entirely clear whether the seemingly unanimous endorsement of a multi-polar international order means the same for both partners. In addition, further deepening of the EU-Brazil partnership could have rather adverse effects on consolidating Mercosur, and EU dialogue with that bloc. It will be increasingly hard for the EU, adversely affected by the economic downturn, to gain real interest of Brazilian authorities in a truly strategic partnership, as they evidently see relations with other emerging countries as much more advantageous in carrying out own global ambitions. While the EU and Brazil will continue to consider each other as important partners, they need to carefully manage these and other incompatibilities of their relationship, lest they fail to fulfil its potential. PISM Policy Paper no. 24 |
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