PISM Policy Papers

The next issue of PISM Policy Papers by Amal Mukhtar and Patrycja Sasnal

The creation of a new, united secular opposition group in Egypt (the National Salvation Front, or NSF) in November 2012 met with a sigh of relief in Europe and the U.S. It is viewed as the only democratic force in a country torn between Islamism and reactionism. The NSF itself, however, represents but a fraction of society, lacks homogeneity, and seems to be driven by basic political motivations rather than a sense of responsibility, just like the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) and its affiliates. More than two years after the fall of Mubarak and a year after the first democratic presidential elections in Egypt, only national reconciliation can save the country, which has seen a series of unconstitutional developments, remains without a parliament, and is on the brink of bankruptcy. Without reconciliation, all political parties, including NSF, will continue to lose support.

The article is a result of cooperation between the Polish Institute of International Affairs and Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo, facilitated by Anna Lindh’s Foundation researcher exchange programme “Citizens for Dialogue”.

PISM Policy Paper no. 11 (59)

The next issue of PISM Policy Papers by Kinga Brudzińska, Patrycja Sasnal and Bartosz Wiśniewski

Poland and Saudi Arabia share a counterintuitive commonality of features and interests. Both are regional “middle powers,” and Poland’s energy poor but agriculturally strong economy makes it surprisingly compatible with the energy rich, agriculturally weak Saudi Arabia. Yet bilateral relations between these nations leave a lot to be desired. There are at least three domains in which relatively little effort could bring much progress in releasing the potential of these relations.

PISM Policy Paper no. 10 (58)

The next issue of PISM Policy Papers by Radosław Tyszkiewicz

The forthcoming EU–Japan summit heralds a new era in the relations between these two major economic powers. Both players are focused on repairing their economies and putting growth back on track. To make this happen they are ready to negotiate legally binding agreements, which would help expand their cooperation. The negotiators will have to resolve a number of contentious issues, but the agreed outcome may result in considerable benefits for both the EU and Japan.

PISM Policy Paper no. 9 (57)

The next issue of PISM Policy Papers by Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk

Gas markets in the European Union are becoming more liberalised and integrated. But this model is rather typical only for North and Western Europe, while Poland significantly lags behind. Polish authorities only recently made some strategic decisions, but they constitute merely boundaries for a well functioning and liquid gas market in Poland integrated with the EU system. While the pace and scope of the necessary changes must be the subject of a reliable, expert debate, too much hesitation is already creating unnecessary uncertainty. Poland risks missing the opportunity to become an important player in Central and Eastern Europe.

PISM Policy Paper no. 8 (56)

The next issue of PISM Policy Papers by Anita Sobják

As a new test case for the resistance of Central European economies, the Cyprus banking crisis has already renewed speculation that Slovenia could be the next Member State in need of a bail-out. While other states in the region have sounder public finances and banking sectors, each of them continues to be exposed to the on-going instabilities of the eurozone. More than four years into the economic crisis, the time is ripe for reflection on the changes that the region has undergone in this period. Principally, it can be seen that both the similarities and the differences between these economies have been brought to the surface. This, together with the future course of economic governance reform of the European Union, might further deepen intra-regional splitting in the future. Overall, however, Central Europe has a chance to improve its relative economic position in the EU in the mid to long run, as the region has weathered the crisis better than the EU average.

PISM Policy Paper no. 7 (55)

The next issue of PISM Policy Papers by Kinga Dudzińska

The global economic downturn of 2008 and the financial and ongoing fiscal crisis in the eurozone have proved to be extremely painful for newer EU Member States Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. At the same time, however, the crises have revealed some significant differences between these three small, seemingly homogenous countries, and especially in the effectiveness of their anti-crisis policies. The diverse results of these policies were shaped in several respects by internal factors, such as the sensitivity of their economies to foreign markets or the different response times of the governments to the first signs of the economic downturn as well as the socio-political background at the time of the crisis. However, the Baltics have indeed learnt lessons, as each one implemented austerity-style policies. Since 2011, economic growth has accelerated in all of the Baltic States, and their struggle with the crisis already seems to be a unique success story that affects regional cooperation as well as relations with Russia.

PISM Policy Paper no. 6 (54)

The next issue of PISM Policy Papers by Dariusz Kałan

The Visegrad Group has for a long time been showing ongoing efforts to develop cooperation with the Eastern Partnership countries by advocating for them in the EU and supporting their democratisation and transformation processes. However, even though the V4 as a whole has aspirations to create an active and compatible role in the East, each Visegrad country also pursues its own Eastern policy rooted in a historical and social background, particular economic and geopolitical interests as well as temporary political goals. Thus, there are areas in which the individual member states do not cooperate with one another, but rather act as competitors. By the same token, since Eastern policy is not necessarily a priority in the national foreign policies of each V4 country, there are also activities that are not promoted to the same degree by all of them. This paper analyses the Eastern policies (understood as maintaining relations with the Eastern Partnership countries and Russia) of Poland’s Visegrad partners—the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia—and discusses areas in which the V4’s efforts may be unified.

PISM Policy Paper no. 5 (53)

The next issue of PISM Policy Papers by Wojciech Lorenz

The stakes in the Arctic are high, but only cooperation will unlock the full potential of the region. The peaceful and secure Arctic can become an attractive transport corridor and energy provider. Yet, a lack of trust and transparency could easily lead to tensions and a militarisation of the region, making it less attractive for investments. To avoid such a scenario, Russia and NATO should use existing forms of cooperation and extend them to the Arctic.

PISM Policy Paper no. 4 (52)

The next issue of PISM Policy Papers by Konrad Zasztowt

Critics of current Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili, including President Mikheil Saakashvili and his opposition United National Movement party, claim that the new Georgian government is undermining Georgia’s stable Euro-Atlantic course in its foreign policies. They suggest the prime minister’s inclination is to change the country’s policies from pro-Western to pro-Russian. The other element of their criticism towards Ivanishvili is that he is attempting to withdraw from the path of democratic reforms. The authorities reject these accusations but don’t deny that they seek to radically modify the policies of their predecessors. These changes include not only domestic but also foreign policies. Although the country’s commitment to the goals of integration with the EU and NATO is still backed by the new government, some statements and decisions by the prime minister suggest his will to reinvent the approach towards his Western partners. Also, his rhetoric concerning Georgia’s Caucasus neighbours may suggest some significant modifications in Georgia’s regional relationships. This paper analyzes the probability of a “paradigm shift” in Georgia’s foreign policy towards the EU, NATO, Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.

PISM Policy Paper no. 3 (51)

The next issue of PISM Policy Papers by Igor Lyubashenko

The importance of debate about information and communication technology’s social and political impact is growing gradually in the European Union. Recently, the EU has mentioned the approximation of legislation on electronic communications with the EU acquis in the framework of the Eastern Partnership initiative. These steps were taken primarily in the context of efforts to create a system of deep and comprehensive free trade areas within the region. This paper presents a proposal for the enrichment of the European Union’s public diplomacy in the so called Eastern Neighbourhood with new tools provided by the development of modern communications technologies and based on the example of Ukraine. The country’s internet audience is growing rapidly and as such constitutes a perfect starting point for new digitally-augmented public diplomacy in the Eastern Neighbourhood.

PISM Policy Paper no. 2 (50)

The next issue of PISM Policy Papers by Jarosław Ćwiek-Karpowicz, Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk and Kirsten Westphal.

Neighbours Poland and Germany have recently started to engage and intensify their dialogue on bilateral energy issues. This may prove to be an indispensable step forward in the future design of integrated EU energy and climate policies. The countries have found themselves on different planes with respect to EU environmental and climate policies. This paper explains the diverging approaches by focusing on the countries’ respective energy situations and political priorities within the strategic energy policy triangle. The triangle is composed of energy security, cost efficiency, and sustainability. The paper explores the bilateral challenges and opportunities in finding common ground for a partnership within a fully integrated EU energy market as well as with respect to its neighbourhood.

This paper was prepared within the framework of the PISM-SWP energy dialogue, with the support of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation. Dr. Jarosław Ćwiek-Karpowicz is head of the Research Office at PISM, Dr. Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk is an analyst with PISM, and Dr. Kirsten Westphal is a senior associate in the Research Division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP).

PISM Policy Paper no. 1 (49)