Konferencja: Perceptions of EU’s New Members from Central and Eastern Europe on the Issues of Nuclear Disarmament and Deterrence?

Purpose

The issue of nuclear deterrence is a central topic of international relations research and represents an important element of states’ security doctrines. Deterrence theorists have focused on different sets of variables: the balance of military forces, cost signaling and bargaining behavior, reputations, and of course, the interests at stake. At the EU level, the issue of deterrence could become a matter of vibrant discussions among the member states. In a speech on March 21st, 2008 in Cherbourg the French President Nicolas Sarkozy stated: “As for Europe, it is a fact: By their very existence, French nuclear forces are a key element in Europe's security'', offering France's neighbors “an open dialogue'' on nuclear deterrence. France and the U.K. are the only countries in Western Europe with nuclear weapons. This dialogue between Europeans could be even more productive if carried out without any a priori assumptions, and thus allow the expression of various sensitive concerns with the end goal of confronting the arguments.

The Central and Eastern European countries (CEE) that joined the European Union during the past six years seem to adopt a somewhat passive attitude regarding the issues of nuclear disarmament and deterrence. However, if we take into consideration their latest interest in these issues and the evolution of the international calendar (end of START agreement in 2009, the 2010 NPT Review Conference, end of SORT agreement in 2012), as well as some possible changes in CEE strategic environment, the situation could change in the near future.

Conference Description

The CERI at Fondation Nationale des Sciences Politiques (Sciences Po) in Paris and The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), Warsaw, have been engaged in multi-disciplinary and comparative research in the area of international relations including: transatlantic relations, ESDP-NATO relations, nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction (with a special emphasis on nuclear weapons), the operation of the nonproliferation regimes, missile defense, disarmament, as well as the activities of NATO and the EU in this field.

The French Ministry of Defence has commissioned CERI to organize this seminar on strategy: The Perceptions of EU’s New Members on the Issues of Nuclear Disarmament and Deterrence, to be held March 25-26, 2010 in Warsaw in cooperation with The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM).   

The aims of this seminar are:

• To understand the perceptions of Central and Eastern European countries regarding the issues of nuclear disarmament and deterrence
• To draw a dynamic panorama of the positioning of CEE countries regarding these questions
• To create a network of European experts (scholars, policy-makers) that could sustain the dialogue beyond the seminar.

The two-day workshop will include plenary session and concurrent roundtables. Each roundtable is animated by a Moderator and followed by three or four introductory presentations by European scholars. The following debates should involve both academics and practitioners.

Thursday, 25 March 2010

9.30-10.00

Plenary Session

Introductory speakers:            

• Sławomir Dębski, Director, PISM
• Łukasz Kulesa, Head of Research Office, PISM                                
• Eric-André Martin, Deputy Head of Mission, French Embassy
• Ewa Kulesza Executive Director, CERI Sciences Po
• Ronald Hatto, Sciences Po
• Odette Tomescu, Sciences Po

10.00-12.00

Roundtable I – Threat perception in the region 

• Current trends in the evolution of an international security environment
• Hierarchy of threats and challenges for Central and Eastern European states
• Strategies of reaction and measures taken to counter threats/risks by CEE states

Moderator: Łukasz Kulesa (PISM, Poland)

Introductions:

• Bruno Dupré (EU)
• Ivars Liepnieks (LIIA, Latvia)
• Marek Madej (PISM, Poland)

12.00-13.30 Lunch

13.30-15.30

Roundtable II – NATO as deterrence and reassurance provider to Central and Eastern Europe

• Role of strategic nuclear weapons in NATO deterrence policy (including issue of maintaining strategic balance)
• Future of sub-strategic weapons
• Role of conventional capabilities

Moderator: Bastien Irondelle (CERI)

Introductions:

• Oliver Meier (Arms Control Association, Germany)
• Liviu Muresan (EURISC Foundation, Romania)
• Robert Ondrejcsák, (CENAA Slovakia)
• Elena Poptodorova (MFA, Bulgaria)

15.30 – 15.50 Coffee break

15.50 – 17.30

Roundtable III – EU or particular states as providers of extended deterrence and assurance: expectations of the region

• EU as the potential provider of deterrence and assurance (possibility of creating European deterrence)
• Role of bilateral ties and individual assurances (by France, USA, UK or other)

Moderator: Jean-Pascal Zanders (EU ISS)

Introductions:

• Ian Anthony (SIPRI)
• Jiri Schneider (PSSI, Czech Rep.)
• Margarita Seselgyte (Vilnius University - Lithuania)

Friday, 26 March 2010

10.00 – 12.15

Roundtable IV - Arms control and nuclear disarmament: a way ahead?

• Main priorities for nuclear disarmament (including the issue of conditions for total disarmament)
• Assessment of the Russian-US disarmament initiatives
• Link between nuclear and conventional arms control and disarmament

Moderator: Ronald Hatto (CERI Sciences Po)

Introductions:

• Erzebet Rozsa (HIIA, Hungary)
• Paul Schulte (UK Defence Academy)
• Vladimir Yermakov (MFA Russia)

12.15-12.45

Wrap-up session / closing remarks

Speakers:

• Christian Lequesne (CERI-Sciences Po)
• Łukasz Kulesa (PISM)
• Ronald Hatto (Sciences Po)
• Odette Tomescu (Sciences Po)
• DAS Representative

12.45 – 14.00 Lunch

Main questions to be addressed by the participants

1. What are the main threats/risks your country is facing?
2. What measures are being taken by your country against those threats/risks?
3. In your opinion what is the role of nuclear weapons? What are their potential and/or desirable evolutions?
4. Do you consider NATO as a provider of deterrence and reassurance to Central and Eastern Europe (strategic/tactical nuclear weapons, conventional means, as a deterrence instrument)?
5. Is there an European deterrence? If not, would it possible to create one?
6. How do you perceive the links between nuclear deterrence and strategic balances?
7. How can we build on the disarmament initiatives (incl. the Russian-US disarmament initiatives), the link between conventional and nuclear arms control and disarmament?
8. Could the international community’ use force against proliferating states?
9. What are the main priorities for nuclear disarmament?
10. By Resolution 1887, the Security Council declared that “Resolving to seek a safer world for all and to create the conditions for a world without nuclear weapons, in accordance with the goals of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), in a way that promotes international stability, and based on the principle of undiminished security for all […]”.  - What are the ‘conditions’ for a world without nuclear weapons?