Bulletin

The Nuclear Security Summit in Seoul (March 26–27) was dominated by controversies surrounding North Korea, but the meeting still succeeded in mobilising states to better coordinate their efforts to enhance the security of nuclear materials and to universalise protection standards. However, the role of the summits as components of the international nuclear security regime is limited. The third such meeting, planned for 2014, most probably will be the last.

At the end of February, France was the first country in the European Union to launch a procedure for ratification of the Treaty Establishing the European Stability Mechanism. The houses of the French parliament adopted both this document as well as the European Council decision amending Article 136 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU. The debate that accompanied ratification showed the differences between the main political parties and lack of unanimity on the left. Also, the wider European context and the influence of the ongoing French presidential election campaign characterized the discussion.

On 1 March, the European Council granted Serbia candidate status for EU membership. This was possible thanks to an agreement reached a week earlier between the Serbian government and the authorities in Pristina on the external representation of Kosovo. This finding is of great importance to regional cooperation and good neighbourly relations in the Western Balkans. The EU should continue its efforts to facilitate dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo, which will translate into an acceleration of the European integration of both countries.

A majority of Latvian voters in a February referendum rejected the possibility to make Russian the country’s second official language. This result was predictable, however, as it challenged the effectiveness of Latvia’s integration policy. The current situation of ethnic Russians living in Lithuania, and in great numbers in Latvia and Estonia, varies. Although the Baltic States treat the issue of national minorities as a purely internal matter, the solidarity amongst them for the protection of national languages will increase.

The current position of France, as presented by President Nicolas Sarkozy, on the negotiations of the EU’s Multiannual Financial Framework is strongly unfavourable for Poland. Sarkozy seeks to maximize budget cuts, notably at the expense of the cohesion policy. The Socialist Party’s François Hollande, who demands less radical EU spending cuts, has a chance to win the upcoming presidential election. Poland should strengthen the coalition of “friends of cohesion policy” countries by including Spain and Italy and by continuing close cooperation with EU institutions.

Ukraine is laying the groundwork for the development of unconventional hydrocarbon extraction, most notably shale gas. By doing so, it is attempting to lower the degree of its dependence on natural gas imports from Russia. Recent changes in Ukrainian legislation have solidified the interest of international oil and gas companies in the exploration for shale gas, but they will be insufficient to ensure the profitability of actual production. The further liberalization of the Ukrainian gas market is essential. The possible rise of the shale gas industry in Ukraine would benefit Poland’s plans in this sphere and the prospect for greater activity by drilling companies in the region may boost the standing of Central and Eastern Europe as an investment destination.

The eastern neighbourhood of the EU is not a significant direction for the foreign policy of Slovenia. The country pursues its policy towards Eastern Europe and South Caucasus mainly through the Union. Slovenia’s position on sanctions against Belarus shows that while having little interest in an eastern-focused policy, economic relations with the area covered by it remain significant. Poland should strengthen bilateral and regional cooperation instruments with countries that do not treat with priority the EU’s actions towards its eastern partners, which can increase the effectiveness of this policy.

This year, Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus entered a close economic integration phase with the inauguration of the Common Economic Space within the framework of the Customs Union that has existed since July 2010. At the same time, the importance of Kazakh–Chinese economic cooperation is growing. Regardless of the Eurasian economic integration, EU countries are still a key economic partner of Kazakhstan, and Poland should encourage EU action in favour of political and economic rapprochement with Kazakhstan.

The recent parliamentary elections in Iran have revealed persistent factional divisions in the government of the theocratic state. The weakness of politicians in the new parliament who are associated with the current president and the strengthening of ultra-conservative forces promises a further deterioration in the internal situation in Iran, especially in its economy. Public apathy during these elections does not exclude a possible increase in tensions within Iran. The election results do not have any impact on the highest priority issue for the West, i.e., stopping Iran’s nuclearisation progress.

Once the Republic of Cyprus takes over the Presidency of the Council of the European Union in the second half of 2012, the Turkish-Cypriot dispute over the status of the island, which has been going on for more than a quarter of a century, may deteriorate, and therefore weaken Turkey's relations with the EU. The discovery of gas deposits in the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea makes the governments in Ankara and Nicosia less prone to reach an agreement that could lead to the unification of the island. In order to keep close relations with Turkey and strengthen their positions in the Middle East, EU countries should become more actively engaged in efforts to continue unification talks. It should also send a positive signal to Turkey in order to revive accession negotiations.

Leftist party SMER-Social Democracy will be the most likely winner in the forthcoming parliamentary elections in Slovakia. A drop in support for the centre-right ruling coalition, which for more than a year has formed PM Iveta Radičová’s government, has been caused by both accusations of bribery and inefficiency in fighting the political and economic crises. If the winning party succeeds in creating a government, it would influence a change in Slovakia’s foreign policy. New authorities in Bratislava would seek to strengthen relations with the biggest European Union states as well as Russia. However, the country’s cooperation with the Visegrad Group and its political dialogue with Hungary may become viewed as less important.

By using Ukraine’s attempts to get a reduction in the price of Russian gas, Gazprom is trying to obtain a monopoly on the Ukrainian market. If Russia achieves this goal, it will hamper the liberalization process of the Ukrainian gas market in accordance with the European Union’s energy policy. The EU should continue to support the reform of Ukraine’s energy sector and make efforts to join the Ukrainian–Russian negotiations as a liaison.