Bulletin

The idea of a tax on financial transactions within the EU has appeared regularly in public debates since the beginning of the economic and financial crisis. Poland should consider more active support of this idea, but only if it is secured within the system of the EU budget and accepted by all the Member States. However, the chances for its implementation are limited because of the opposition of the EU’s main economic partners. Besides, there are serious differences concerning the idea of a new tax, not only in the EU as a whole but also among the eurozone members.

The Defence Strategic Guidance (DSG), unveiled by the Obama administration in early January, is meant to serve three purposes. First, it seals the reorientation of the strategic priorities of the United States, pointing to Asia-Pacific as the primary area of interest in the political and military domains. Second, it sets the future course for the transformation of the U.S. military. Third, the DSG lays out the way in which the Obama administration intends to reconcile these goals with the need to also address the challenge of the growing public debt.

The increasing uncertainty in the Persian Gulf, strengthened by the possibility of the imposition of further sanctions by the EU, adversely affects the global oil price. The situation in the region was aggravated by the announcement of Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. That could bring increased political and economic costs for the parties to a potential conflict. Iran’s strategic calculations are not transparent, so it is important to separate the effects of sanctions from the military crisis on the oil markets.

It is becoming unlikely and increasingly difficult for Bashar al-Assad to stay in power over the next year due to the growing isolation of the regime, sanctions and the support extended to the opposition by France, Turkey and the United States. A low-intensity internal conflict is developing in Syria, which could transform into a sectarian civil war. The radicalization and militarization of the regime and opposition forces, as well as deepening social antagonisms facilitate such a scenario. The international community’s options remain limited. Outside intervention is very risky and highly unlikely.

The United States remains the first-rank player on the international nuclear energy market, although its standing has deteriorated, mainly because of the standstill in the domestic nuclear industry and the emergence of new players. From the point of view of countries pursuing their own nuclear energy programs, cooperation with the U.S. can be particularly advantageous in the area of nuclear regulation and safety. One of the ramifications of advanced cooperation with the American nuclear industry is the need to comply with U.S. regulations governing the transfer of nuclear technology.