PISM Bulletin

Lithuania wants to become independent from Russia and increase the self-sufficiency and the competitiveness of its energy sector. The basis for its transformation and modernisation will be, inter alia, renewable energy sources, of which the role in the energy balance is increasing in line with EU requirements. At the same time, Lithuania intends to introduce innovations that will increase energy efficiency. These activities may stimulate stronger cooperation with Poland, which Lithuania perceives as one of its most important partners.

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is not only a promising market for Polish entrepreneurs but also an interesting direction for cities and provinces. Federal states (the United Arab Emirates) and decentralised ones (Tunisia) in the region deserve the special attention of Polish local governments. Expo 2020 in Dubai will be an opportunity to involve local governments in the promotion of Poland in the MENA region, and to establish contacts with local authorities in Arab countries. Local government cooperation can supplement bilateral relations at the central level.

In the coming years, NATO will increase the pressure for the development of technologically advanced weapons. Superiority over Russia in this area will be crucial for the ability to conduct a collective-defence mission. The simultaneous development of capabilities for crisis-response missions also will be necessary to maintain political cohesion in the Alliance. NATO’s ability to perform both types of missions at the same time will be crucial for Polish security in the long term.

The former Prime Minister of Macedonia Nikola Gruevski was granted asylum in Hungary on 20 November. Sheltering a politician who has been convicted of abuse of power in a candidate country for EU membership raises legal doubts and political controversy. Hungary’s participation in obstructing the operation of Macedonian state institutions constitutes a challenge above all for EU enlargement policy, which aims to strengthen the rule of law.

The deal on the United Kingdom’s exit from the EU, which was signed off by EU and UK leaders on 25 November, determines not only the Brexit’s conditions but also important aspects of the future EU-UK relations. The deal’s content represents a success for the EU, reflecting all of the Union’s initial objectives and limiting the incorporation of the UK’s. Consequently, the outcome of the negotiations makes the agreement’s rejection by the UK parliament highly probable. Such a scenario would increase the likelihood of “no-deal” Brexit.

In the German discussion on the eurozone, there is not only a question of reforms, e.g. the introduction of a joint budget and finalisation of the banking union. Much attention is also paid to the Target 2 payment system, which simultaneously accumulated the high, positive balance of the Bundesbank and the negative balances of the central banks of the southern European countries. This imbalance is considered an economic and political risk for Germany. However, remedies against it are in short supply. Actions that are too rapid or radical could destabilise the eurozone.

The U.S. has warned that it will withdraw from the INF Treaty unless Russia returns to compliance with the accord by February 2019. A tougher position was also adopted by the NATO members, all 29 of which agreed for the first time that Russia has violated the treaty. Further diplomatic efforts, however, provide no realistic chance to change Russia’s calculations and behaviour, especially given that the Alliance has not worked out a broader strategy to increase pressure on the country.

The EU has adopted a second batch of projects to be implemented within permanent structured cooperation (PESCO) in the area of security and defence policy. The long-term impact of PESCO on Europe’s military capacity will depend on the commitment to implement these initiatives and on launching new ones that will address key gaps in Europe’s defence capabilities. This can be done mostly through collaborative defence programmes, eligible for co-funding from the European Defence Fund. By participating in these initiatives, Poland could reap industrial, military, and political benefits.

The European Commission’s (EC) proposal to resign from the unanimity rule in certain areas of the EU’s external relations will not be supported by many smaller EU countries. However, ahead of the Sibiu summit in May 2019, Member States will debate other mechanisms to improve the decision-making process in EU foreign policy, for example, the creation of a European Security Council (ESC). In a contribution to this process, Poland may exchange views on the ESC concept within the Weimar Triangle format (Poland, Germany, France) and propose an EU representative be present in international conflict-resolution negotiation formats in which Member States participate.

A recently published report by the U.S. National Defense Strategy Commission (NDSC) is an important non-partisan document that may influence debates on the defence budget in the new Congress. The NDSC assessed the main problems within the U.S. armed forces and the necessary steps for modernisation and budgeting. The unclassified report gives good insight into the scale of the challenges and efforts ahead of the U.S. and other NATO-member militaries. However, the NDSC report does not directly address the issue of the U.S. Army permanent forward presence on NATO’s Eastern Flank but it recommends to the Pentagon and Congress to fully re-create in the long term its heavy division in Europe.