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Bulletin PISM

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Editors: Sławomir Dębski (PISM Director), Bartosz Wiśniewski (Head of Research Office), Rafał Tarnogórski (Managing Editor), Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka, Anna Maria Dyner, Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk, Sebastian Płóciennik, Patrycja Sasnal, Justyna Szczudlik, Marcin Terlikowski, Tomasz Żornaczuk

28 April 2017
no. 42 (982)
Cyprus Reunification Talks: Conclusions for the EU
Reunification of Cyprus is in EU countries’ interests. It would contribute to reinforcing stability in the Eastern Mediterranean region, benefit EU energy security, and help shape a new model of EU-Turkey relations. Thus, the EU should consider increasing its engagement in the reunification talks. It could play the role of guarantor of an agreement, as well as diminish Cypriot fears about security. Poland’s government could promote an intra-EU debate on that subject.

Karol Wasilewski
27 April 2017
no. 41 (981)
Negotiations between the European Commission and Russia on Nord Stream 2
The European Commission has proposed that the legal status of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline be settled with an agreement between Russia and the European Union, negotiated by the EC on behalf of the Member States. Support for the proposal should be conditional on the agreement confirming, without exception, the application of EU energy law to the entire pipeline. The consequence of such a position may also entail the opening of discussions on the status of Nord Stream 1. 

Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk, Szymon Zaręba
24 April 2017
no. 40 (980)
SPD’s Elections Strategy: Gain Support from Social Promises
Germany’s Social Democrats have launched their federal election campaign with a series of welfare promises. Its goals are to regain the support of left-wing voters and reconquer terrain in the political centre from the Christian Democrats. If the SPD’s strategy succeeds, German economic policy would shift to the left. For Poland, this may mean better conditions for exports but also the challenge of faster integration of the euro area.

Sebastian Płóciennik
21 April 2017
no. 39 (979)
French Presidential Candidate Macron’s European Policy Concept
The outcome of the French presidential election may be decisive to further European integration. Candidate Emmanuel Macron, who favours further integration of the eurozone and through the European Common Security and Defence Policy, has a great chance to win. His victory also would bring renewal of the Franco-German partnership as the driver of change in the European Union and a shift to the “multi-speed” Union vision. The concepts held by this centrist candidate fit into the mainstream of debate on the future of the EU, which, if he succeeds, would make him one of Europe’s main leaders.

Łukasz Jurczyszyn
19 April 2017
no. 38 (978)
Donbas Trade Blockade Poses a Challenge to Ukrainian Authorities
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s ad-hoc decision to authorise the trade blockade of Russia-occupied parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions was taken to diminish the risk of political instability in the country. However, the blockade will not solve the problem of the lack of a coherent state policy towards that area and poses a challenge to Ukraine’s energy security. Poland, for its part, has instruments it can use to support the modernisation of Ukraine’s energy system.

Daniel Szeligowski
11 April 2017
no. 37 (977)
Slovakia’s View of the Visegrad Group
In the debate on the future of the European Union, Slovakia favours more integration. The sharpening discussion about a multi-speed Europe could undermine political cooperation within the Visegrad Group. Slovakia uses the V4 to strengthen its position on selected issues but, at the same time, signals shortcomings associated with group membership. The response to the possibility that political cooperation will be undermined requires joint action on the future of the EU based on the V4 March statement.

Łukasz Ogrodnik
10 April 2017
no. 36 (976)
European Commission Gives Go-Ahead to Hungary’s Nuclear Power Plant Expansion
The European Commission has given a green light to planned work on the Paks nuclear power plant in Hungary. This means Russian state-owned company Rosatom can carry out the project in which it was directly awarded the construction of two new reactors. The circumstances behind the signing of the agreement, part of which is classified, may indicate the existence of broader energy arrangements between Hungary and Russia and could translate into their further strengthening political cooperation. The EC’s decision approving this use of state aid also contains guidelines Poland may use for future nuclear projects.

Veronika Jóźwiak
06 April 2017
no. 35 (975)
Trump Administration’s Approach to the North Korean Nuclear and Missile Threats
The Trump administration intends to robustly respond to the “immediate” missile and nuclear threat from North Korea. Its strategy will be, to a large extent, a continuation of previous policy. A new element, though, is pressure on China to take full advantage of its leverage over Kim Jong Un’s regime. Growing tensions on the Korean Peninsula could have significant implications on the relationship between the U.S. and its European allies.

Jacek Durkalec, Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski
04 April 2017
no. 34 (974)
The 2007 Berlin and 2017 Rome Declarations: Compared, with Conclusions
The Berlin and Rome Declarations, adopted respectively on the 50th and 60th anniversaries of the Treaties of Rome, differ in both the general tone and the challenges presented. At the time that the Berlin Declaration was signed, the direction of European Union reforms was clearly outlined. The Union was to be transformed into a single international organisation, in which the majority of decisions would be made using the “community” method. This direction was confirmed by the Treaty of Lisbon. In the Rome Declaration, there is uncertainty about the future of the EU and the lack of a coherent vision for the development of the organisation. This could result in the short-term defence of the status quo, and the longer-term differentiation of integration.

Jolanta Szymańska
03 April 2017
no. 33 (973)
Challenges to U.S.-Russia Strategic Arms Control during the Trump Presidency
The coming years may mark the end of bilateral limitations of U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals. The future of the New START treaty is unclear, chances for a new agreement slim, and violation of the INF treaty by Russia remains a serious challenge. While strategic arms control strengthens NATO’s security, it should not come at the price of concessions undermining the role of the U.S. as guarantor of security and stability in Europe.

Jacek Durkalec


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