Bulletin

The European Commission has asked EU Member States for a mandate to sign a Ukraine–EU Association Agreement during the Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius (November 2013) if the country meets EU conditions. It has also suggested that even before the summit the trade part of the agreement (DCFTA) may come into force. The final decision may be taken at a meeting of EU foreign ministers in October. Poland should persuade the authorities of Ukraine to fulfil the European Union’s requirements by showing the tangible benefits that could result from it. At the same time, Poland should indicate to its partners in the EU that signing this agreement also will be positive for the Union, from both economic and political points of view.

Early parliamentary elections not only will not help restore political stability in Bulgaria but also could further deepen the chaos because of the high dispersion of votes and the expected difficulties with creating a coalition. For a country immersed in crisis, maintaining the post-election stalemate is particularly not beneficial because of the deteriorating economic situation and growing public pressure. Regardless of which party will return to power, one should not expect a significant improvement in Bulgaria’s image in the EU or a positive settlement of the most important issues, including the country’s rapid accession to the Schengen area.

The discussion on new climate and energy targets up to 2030 has recently been opened. Consensual acceptance of these targets will, however, pose one of the biggest challenges to the EU, since two divergent visions have emerged among Member States: concentration on ambitious climate targets vs. competitiveness and economic growth. The European Council meeting on 22 May will represent the EU’s first attempt to come to grips with the subject. Poland should propose constructive solutions, in line with its own interests, and build a coalition of the Member States sceptical about the highly ambitious plans.

Japan’s recent initiatives in the security policy sphere seem to reflect both its concerns about the robustness of its alliance with the U.S., and efforts to make the best of the shift in the United States’ interests regarding the Asia-Pacific region. At the same time, Japan is aware of the limitations facing the United States, stemming from its reluctance to engage in regional disputes with China and the need for a more frugal approach to its use of financial and military assets. Further cooperation with Japan can be a good measure of the United States’ readiness to reinforce its political guarantees with military capabilities at a time of shrinking defence budgets, and thus should be observed carefully by the United States’ NATO allies.

The supply of rare earth elements (REEs) has become increasingly important in the context of natural resources security. Concern about the international availability of REEs is driven by their role in high-tech end-applications, including defence and electricity generation, and by the policies of China. As a dominant producer of REEs, China can successfully limit their supply on the world market. However, the growth of the REE industry outside of China limits the opportunities for using access to REEs to exert political pressure on importers. Diversification of REE supply is becoming an important prerequisite for the international competitiveness of highly industrialised countries, and should be a priority for Poland.

The parliamentary elections in Pakistan on 11 May, together with changes of army chief and chief justice later this year, open a potentially risky transition that can, however, strengthen democracy in the country. Although the next government is unlikely to bring fundamental changes to Pakistan’s foreign policy, empowering civilian leadership over the army may lead in the long term to improved cooperation with neighbours and stabilisation in the region. The EU can play an important role in supporting peaceful changes through its Election Observation Mission and close engagement with the next government.