PISM Bulletin

The French government’s project of changes to immigration and asylum policy, recently adopted in the National Assembly, is among the most right-wing of President Emmanuel Macron’s reforms. It includes limits on immigration by speeding up processing of asylum applications, extending the period of detention for immigrants who entered through irregular means, as well as a faster deportation procedure. These changes were considered too restrictive by some parliamentarians in the president’s La République En Marche! (LRM), and their adoption risks party cohesion.

The Global Compact for Migration being negotiated at the UN will be the first such document to comprehensively regulate international flows of people. Although it will not be legally binding, its significance lies in strengthening universal principles and standards on migration and to facilitate cooperation between states in this area. After the withdrawal of the U.S. from the negotiations, the shape and impact of the document to be signed in December this year depends to a large extent on the involvement of the European Union. Poland can use the last stage of the talks to call for better security guarantees for host countries and improved border controls.

Since the beginning of the year, tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean have been rising because of Turkey’s confrontational posture towards Greece and opposition to the exploration of natural resources near the coast of Cyprus. The situation will make EU policy towards Turkey more difficult to execute and in the longer run will be another challenge to the stability of the Union’s neighbourhood and its energy diversification projects.

Car-sharing, more and more popular in Poland, is becoming an innovative element of public transport in cities. However, to make the expansion of car-sharing (rentals by the minute) an important step towards the development of electromobility in Poland and an effective way to improve air quality, cities should focus on electric car-sharing. Local government support for this initiative would be a promotional opportunity for Polish cities in international forums as leaders in low-emission transport and focused on innovative solutions.

In its judgment of 6 March, the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) ruled that the arbitration dispute settlement model provided for in the investment agreement between Slovakia and the Netherlands is incompatible with EU law. The verdict may hinder the further application of similar solutions. The ruling, though, is conducive to Polish efforts to terminate investment protection agreements with other EU Member States.

South Korea’s build-up of its missile arsenal is motivated by the threats from North Korea. Although its sources and advancements are not widely known, it is an important factor in the regional military balance. The development of the South’s arsenal would be impossible without assistance from Russia and U.S. acceptance, even if both overlooked the avoidance of both the spirit and letter of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MCTR). Like NATO member states, the South Korean missiles will need to remain integrated with the U.S. military plans and capabilities. 

U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement in December that the U.S. recognises Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and will relocate the U.S. embassy to the city caused a deep crisis in Palestinian-American relations. It has lessened the likelihood of a renewal of Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations and complicated the internal political situation in the Palestinian Authority (PA). The Palestinian government has turned to other entities, including the EU, to attempt to revive the peace process and increase support for the Palestinians.

The labour market in France has been one of the weakest points of its economy for several decades. Entrepreneurs lack qualified employees and yet high unemployment persists. That is why President Emmanuel Macron has decided to change vocational training and internships system, increase the number of people entitled to receive unemployment benefits, and reform labour law. These changes have high public support and are being undertaken with a good economy. The traditional resistance from trade unions and increasingly better organised opposition remains a challenge to Macron’s reforms.

The Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games in Pyeongchang helped to restore the high-level political dialogue between North and South Korea. Both states treated the events as an opportunity to take the lead in shaping the situation on the Korean Peninsula. It opened the way to a summit between the countries’ leaders and facilitated talks between North Korea and the U.S. The continuity of the dialogue will depend on the North Koreans’ readiness for talks and acceptance of diplomatic solutions.

The Visegrad countries (V4) and Germany have a common interest in maintaining and promoting financial discipline in the EU. This stems from their mutual economic ties and preferences regarding the functioning of the international economy and European integration. However, this proximity is not permanent, and it can be weakened by the tendencies in the public finances of the V4 and reforms of the euro area.

One of the visible results of U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to Asia in 2017 was the departure of the administration from identifying the region as “Asia-Pacific” for “Indo-Pacific.” This difference testifies to the appreciation of the importance of the Indian Ocean basin in U.S. policy and to India as a partner in helping to hedge China’s regional expansion and maintaining the liberal international rules-based order.

The results of the first session of the 13th National People’s Congress (NPC, China’s parliament), which concluded on 20 March, confirm the dominant position of Chairman Xi Jinping in its political apparatus. He was elected to the state chairmanship for the second time, and a change to the constitution approved by NPC members even gave him the ability to continue in his position for life. The changes to both the government and highest leadership approved at the central level and confirmed by parliament could indicate attempts to revive the dialogue with the U.S. and EU. The basis for China’s economic policy will be modernisation of its economy through modern technology.