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Bulletin PISM

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Editors: Sławomir Dębski (PISM Director), Bartosz Wiśniewski (Head of Research Office), Rafał Tarnogórski (Managing Editor), Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka, Anna Maria Dyner, Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk, Sebastian Płóciennik, Patrycja Sasnal, Justyna Szczudlik, Marcin Terlikowski, Tomasz Żornaczuk

20 February 2017
no. 19 (959)
India’s Perspective on Cooperation with the U.S. under Donald Trump’s Presidency
It is likely that U.S. President Donald Trump will continue strengthening American engagement with India. Despite some differing views on international affairs, including globalisation and policy on Pakistan, an expected change in the U.S. approach to China and Russia, together with an intensified fight against terrorism, will further solidify cooperation between the U.S. and India. India also counts on Trump’s presidency hastening global governance reforms, helping New Delhi strengthen its regional and global position.

Patryk Kugiel
17 February 2017
no. 18 (958)
Potential Legal and Political Effects if the U.S. Relocates Its Embassy to Jerusalem
U.S. President Donald Trump has stated he would like to see the American embassy in Israel moved from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Such a move would be discordant with international law and more than four decades of policy of his predecessors. It would bring negative political consequences for the U.S., Israel, the Middle East and the European Union, even if it were well received by some Israelis and American members of Congress. 

Szymon Zaręba
14 February 2017
no. 17 (957)
Turkey: On the Road to a Presidential System
The Turkish parliament has adopted a constitutional reform package that introduces a presidential system. The amendments not only impair parliament’s role but also weaken the judiciary’s independence. To enter into force, the reform package must be approved by referendum, set for 16 April. The referendum campaign will intensify tensions in Turkey and the changes could lead to a deterioration of Turkey-EU relations.

Karol Wasilewski
13 February 2017
no. 16 (956)
The Potential Effects of Renegotiation of NAFTA
In the U.S. presidential campaign, Donald Trump criticised NAFTA, calling it the “worst trade deal” the U.S. has ever signed. He decried the agreement as contributing to the high U.S. trade deficit with Mexico and loss of jobs to that country. In the first days of his presidency, Trump said his administration would renegotiate NAFTA to make it more beneficial to the U.S. Talks on this issue could take a while. Moreover, if the partners remain inflexible in their demands, withdrawal from NAFTA cannot be excluded. Its renegotiation may also have a negative impact on the world economy, partly by increasing uncertainty and limiting investment in NAFTA member states.

Damian Wnukowski
10 February 2017
no. 15 (955)
Consequences of the Deterioration of the Situation in Donbas
The recent exacerbation of hostilities in Ukraine’s Donbas is a reaction by Russia-backed irregular forces to actions taken by the Ukraine Armed Forces (UAF), who since December 2016 have been gradually restoring control over territory along the Minsk-agreed separation line. Russia accuses Ukraine of breaching the Minsk agreement and blames the Ukrainian authorities for the outbreak of fighting. The argument will be used by Russia to lift sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the EU. However, the Ukrainian authorities claim that the UAF’s actions have not violated the Minsk agreement since it provides for the territory in question to be under Ukraine’s control.    

Anna Maria Dyner, Daniel Szeligowski
09 February 2017
no. 14 (954)
Financial Support for Polish Businesses Abroad
Financial support from public funds is aimed at increasing the competitiveness of exporters and investors. Financing the activity of businesses abroad is a tool for a country in its rivalry on international markets. To increase the chances of Polish companies to win foreign contracts, the state system of support for such businesses should include higher spending, improvement of existing instruments and broadening of their scope, and increased recognition among entrepreneurs. 

Damian Wnukowski
06 February 2017
no. 13 (953)
Possible Course of U.S. Climate Policy under President Trump
During his election campaign, Donald Trump announced a break with the policy of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which in his view adversely affects business in the United States. Among his stated aims were taking the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement, cutting off financing for climate protection in developing countries, and repealing federal regulations aimed at reducing emissions and the use of fossil fuels. The limitation of actions related to climate protection in the U.S. seems to be a foregone conclusion, but the global consequences will depend on the specific decisions of the new administration.

Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk, Marek Wąsiński
02 February 2017
no. 12 (952)
Prospects for Compromise on Reform of the Common European Asylum System
Supporters and opponents of the automatic redistribution of asylum-seekers have been unable to find compromise on changes to the Common European Asylum System for several months. Many Member States are against transferring the competences they hold on migration to the EU level. Thus, it’s worth working toward a solution that would enable relocation while maintaining Member State control over the influx of refugees to their territory.

Jolanta Szymańska


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