PISM Bulletin

One significant delegation missing from the Belt and Road Initiative Forum in Beijing in May was India. Although India’s boycott of the summit stems from bilateral problems in its cooperation with China, some of its reservations are shared in Europe. India’s stance will not stop the Chinese grand project, but points to a growing rivalry between the Asian powers. The European Union and its Member States should continue to support connections between Asia and Europe but also pressure on parties to ensure infrastructure investments meet the highest international standards. 

China has used the deterioration of Russia’s relations with the EU and U.S. to strengthen its position within a strategic partnership with the Russian Federation. The PRC’s goals are to counterbalance the U.S., secure its own economic interests in the post-Soviet area, increase border security and obtain Russian support for Chinese international initiatives. In exchange, China supports Russia by abstaining from open criticism on its annexation of Crimea and by importing raw materials. The partnership brings more benefits to China, which is positive for the EU. The PRC, unlike Russia, is concerned about destabilisation of NATO’s Eastern Flank and favours European integration.

Established in 2006, a legal instrument called European Groupings of Territorial Cooperation (EGTC) was intended to serve the objectives of EU cohesion policy and the Europe 2020 strategy. However, in Poland this instrument has been used at a small scale. The four EGTCs established on the Polish borders focus on projects that can be carried out through other forms of cooperation. Among the challenges that EGTCs should encompass are management of the environment or transport projects.

The importance of Israel’s cooperation with Asian states has increased systematically. The pivot from the West to Asia is focused on growing the economy but in the longer term might also bring political benefits to Israel. It attributes great importance to its relations with China, which could lead to disputes with the U.S., especially in the sensitive sphere of technological cooperation. The changes in Israel’s policy in this area may prove beneficial to the European Union.

Russia’s establishment of contact with the Taliban and organisation of three international peace conferences on Afghanistan points at its growing re-engagement in the country. Russian authorities have revised their Afghan policy in light of the deteriorating security situation there, the failed peace negotiations, and lack of a clear American strategy towards the region. Afghanistan has emerged like Syria and Libya as another arena in the Russia-West rivalry, which may further undermine the war-torn country’s stability. NATO should reverse the negative trends in Afghanistan by increasing support to the Afghan security forces and reviving limited cooperation with Russia, for instance, on regional peace initiatives.

Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, with the support of the European Commission, want to synchronise their power grids with European systems to reduce their dependence on Russia. A compromise reached on a connection via Poland does not specify the technical details and the Baltic States still have differences about what they want. Further support for integration of the electricity sector is in the interest of Poland but should be conditioned on the compliance of all three countries and funding from the European Union.

Russia perceives North Africa as an area of rivalry with the United States and European Union countries. It is enhancing its political, economic and military presence in the largest countries in the southern Mediterranean and its position as an important player in the local oil and gas sectors and as a security partner could pose challenges to NATO and the EU.