PISM Bulletin

The Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania blocked a joint EU statement criticising the relocation of the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. EU unity against the violation of international law was subordinated by these states to domestic competition for influence and to gain U.S. support. This decision not only weakened the effectiveness of EU cohesion and diplomatic efforts but also caused a deterioration in relations between these countries and part of the Arab world.

At the halfway point of the Brexit talks, the time pressure is increasing. The European Commission is trying to use the approaching deadline to “soften” the UK’s stance, despite the steadily growing risk of a lack of agreement. Comparing the procedural and political frameworks of both sides, there are two windows of political opportunity for a breakthrough: one in June and the other in November this year. If the parties fail to finalise the deal by then, the most likely solution will be the “no-deal” Brexit.

China’s authorities have focused on the development of football as a sport discipline. By 2050, they hope to become a World Cup host. Success in football is supposed to strengthen patriotic sentiment in the country and the legitimacy of the Communist Party (CPC) and improve China’s image globally. Authorities want to achieve this through the professionalisation of management, in part from investment in football sectors in other countries such as Italy or England. Companies from China also have entered the FIFA sponsor circle, supporting the 2018 World Cup in Russia.

Russia has declared it will cooperate with Turkey on armaments, in the joint fight against terrorism, and on common energy projects. However, the main goal of the Russian authorities is to weaken Turkey’s links with NATO and the EU. The relations of the two countries are characterised by ad hoc cooperation, and Turkey’s regional ambitions can hinder their partnership. The Russian-Turkish rapprochement is a challenge for Poland because it is contrary to the energy interests of Central Europe and complicates the security of NATO’s Eastern Flank. 

Germany is among the countries that have much to lose in case of an escalation of the current trade dispute with the U.S. Therefore, despite President Donald Trump’s administration imposing tariffs on steel and aluminium from the EU, Germany favours continuing talks and seeking compromise. From the Polish point of view, Germany’s caution is beneficial: it reduces the risk of a political crisis in transatlantic relations, protects economic interests, and creates an opportunity to block the construction of the Russia-backed Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.

In May, the Turkish lira reached a record low to the U.S. dollar. Turkey’s growing economic problems stem from Turkish politicians’ preference for political goals over economic ones. For now, the authorities have begun to undertake actions to regain investors’ trust, but in the longer term, Turkey’s economy needs to undergo deep and probably unpopular structural reform. The country’s economic problems may significantly influence the parliamentary and presidential elections set for 24 June. 

Initiated at the end of 2017, the Varna Quadrilateral is a forum for cooperation between Bulgaria, Greece, Serbia and Romania. It is intended to improve coordination of cross-border infrastructure and energy investments between the largest countries in southeastern Europe. Meetings to date also show that collaboration can have clear political elements. However, a half year after the inauguration of the new initiative, its future is in doubt due to the great differences between its members.